alchemy on crops?

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Re: alchemy on crops?

Postby _Gunnar » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:19 pm

Procne wrote:No, once you have (5,5,5,85) seeds then the only way to increase its purity is to increase last component's purity, simply because it alone has so high impact on it. I'm pretty sure that if we took those values and ran simulations with the system you described we would get lowered purity in majority of cases.


initial values:

[5,5,5,85]

final values:

[5+a,5+b,5+c,85+d] where a,b,c,d are generated from independent uniform distributions between -5 and 5.

condition to increase the lead component:

100*(85+d)/(100+a+b+c+d) > 85

rearrange

0.15*d-0.85*(a+b+c) > 0

since d, a, b, c are as likely to be positive as negative, this happens on average half the time (a symmetry argument, if you want to prove this more rigorously i can as well)

I think if we simulate the system I have said it will confirm this, which means that if you see something in game that is different (and I'm pretty sure you are a more experienced farmer than me, so I'll trust you on that), this probably means that me thinking it works this way (+/-5 then renormalize) is wrong.

You are right that to increase purity at high purities you essentially have to increase the high component, but that is only true after normalization, and not for the rolls themselves - for example with the values we are using a roll of [-5,-5,-5,-5] will result in 100% pure output.

Has anyone got data to determine what the distribution of the rolls actually is? I admit I haven't done anything but look at what loftar wrote and think that this is what happened, so I'd love some hard data.
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Re: alchemy on crops?

Postby Procne » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:36 pm

Yes, you are correct.

Just did some simulations and median was indeed almost 0. Average purity change was positive. This changes however when any of component is higher than 95, or lower than 5. Then median and mean becomes negative
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Re: alchemy on crops?

Postby staxjax » Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:20 pm

If you replant only 100% pure seeds, I think it has something like 12% chance to retain purity at 100%...that is why I just replant whatever 90%+ seeds I have and mill all my 100% ears of cereal into flour. I get more chances to harvest 100% cereals that way. Even when I plant only 90%+ seeds sometimes they will come out at 70% or less purity and I throw them in the river.
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Re: alchemy on crops?

Postby _Gunnar » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:30 pm

staxjax wrote:If you replant only 100% pure seeds, I think it has something like 12% chance to retain purity at 100%...that is why I just replant whatever 90%+ seeds I have and mill all my 100% ears of cereal into flour. I get more chances to harvest 100% cereals that way. Even when I plant only 90%+ seeds sometimes they will come out at 70% or less purity and I throw them in the river.


Yeah, 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 (when you are at 100% all 3 0% elements have to go -ve to stay there, only requirement)
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Re: alchemy on crops?

Postby inzain » Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:26 pm

outstanding info ,lets me know that my hopeful range of getting them between 90-100% is actually applicable. im glad you guys chimed in with some math to back it up. makes it work better in my head. thanks.
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