Salem

Starting this thread because Brexit seems to be moving along well and Theresa May is doing a wonderful job negotiating the terms. And because some people are complaining there's too much American politics here but don't have the wherewithal to make their own threads.

They've published a white paper on Thursday with details of the Brexit plan.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38836906
BBC News article about the white paper.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... hite-paper
Actual White Paper

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HQTkGa3N5g
Political Youtuber's opinion on the whole thing, from a couple weeks ago. #MakeBritainGreatAgain

Happy to hear they are breaking free

I am a naturally cautious person so i voted against Brexit.

But only on same basis as any other business deal I look at:

Can anyone accuratly predict what a Brexit will mean for our economy?....no

If we have a Brexit can those advocating it be held responsible if damage is done to our economy...no

Potentially what is the best outcome:

1) We get control of immigration from EU (although the majority of Immgration to UK is from outside the EU and has been for many years)
2) Laws put in place by UK government cant be over ruled by EU courts.
3) We stop contributing to the EU money pot.........we will also have to pay for many items we didnt have to before..........But almost certainly we will have a net gain here.
4) Our economy will suffer in the short term but quickly bonce back after favourable trade deals are achieved arround the world.

Potentially what is the worst outcome:
1) It makes little difference to immigration and we continue to need low paid workers to boost out economy or immgration stops but due to the weaking economy wages and income are reduced.
2) Inflation increases especially ons item like fuel and food.
3) Many businesses / banks who rely on free trade with europe leave the UK / go bankrupt , Net tax reciepts are severely down forcing additional cuts to health services teaching, police etc.
4) the trade deals we get are worse than what we have now in the EU.

Now looking at it all I voted "its too unpredictable and potentially really bad so I vote no to change". But my fellow countrymen didnt agree and I have to accept that. What upsets me about it is 95% of the people I talk to about it hant got beyond...this new story about immigrants upset me so i voted to get rid of them with a Brexit or we have to pay x money to the EU I voted so we keep it. It seems as a people we Brits are increasingly less able to analyze a situation, impartically evaluate different opinions, seperate facts from fiction and cut through the double speak of politicians. In short by and large we are idoits.

I love a good debate with a well informed and eliquent adversary.......but finding one is not easy

3)

TotalyMeow wrote:Theresa May is doing a wonderful job negotiating the terms.

I obviously can't tell from an inner perspective. However, at the moment i have high doubts, that these story will end for the UK well.
From a personal point of view, i don't really care. UK was, for me, never a real part of the EU, because of the numerous special treatments for the UK, treatments which served the UK very well in the past. I think (hope), the EU will function more properly without the UK.
At the moment it looks like, as would several big companies leave the United Kingdom, especially because of the new immigration conditions. I don't know how much the Brits want to lower taxes, for holding these companies back. And even many of the original Brexit voters seem to be scared about the fact, that their vote will now be realized.
And from what i have heard from european politicians, there seems to be no willing for making the Brits farewell presents.

The actual british interests seem to be, in a nutshell, to leave the EU, while keeping all benefits. I absolutely see no need for the EU, to sign such deals.

But the key question will be, how the Scots will react.

But don't get me wrong, of course i would have prefered it, seeing the UK remaining in the EU. The european idea is surely not the worst idea ever.
And for the UK, I'm afraid, will some words from 1986 become very real in the long term:

Here in the land of opportunity, watch us revel in our liberty
You can say what you like but it doesn't change anything
Because the corridors of power are an ocean away

I don't think trade deals are going to be a problem for Britain, I really don't. I know I'd be in favor of free trade deals with Britain (we don't need tariffs as much as we just need to cut down on business regulations and simplify the tax code), and I don't think I'm alone in this opinion. But when it comes to the EU, am I right that it's France that wants to punish Britain for leaving and France that holds a lot of the power? So, it might seem that Britain will get a bad deal thanks to France, but I don't think that will happen because Britain is in a strong position with regard to trade with the EU, is it not? They need Britain too much not to give a good trade deal lest the whole thing just falls apart.

All the EU needs british money, and well, we semi need their products.

Think germany will stop selling cars to the UK?
Think France will stop selling cheese and wine?
Think spain will stop selling fruit and veg?

Think again, you want to stop selling us all your goods fine, we will spend our money elsewere, it might be more expensive however the EU will be cutting off nose to spite face.

FTT4eva wrote:All the EU needs british money, and well, we semi need their products.

Think germany will stop selling cars to the UK?
Think France will stop selling cheese and wine?
Think spain will stop selling fruit and veg?

Think again, you want to stop selling us all your goods fine, we will spend our money elsewere, it might be more expensive however the EU will be cutting off nose to spite face.

The question is what happens when the average UK citizen wants a german car, as opposed to whatever is available locally, and can't get one for quite the same price? Are they going to go out of their way to buy a crappier car or will they just pay a bit extra? In cases like Brexit or any sort of would be country-saving government, i say sure, you promise to end the problems with the EU or any major set of rules, great. But will they in turn stimulate the parts of the economy that need to be in place to make up for whatever they're tearing down? If they incentivize agriculture and greenhouses and alternative sources of agricultural production to make up for the higher importation prices, then wooo brexit. If they become lazy the second they've achieved their brexit and just mooch money like other governments would have, then you get a situation similar to selling your car cause it's old but then being too lazy to get a new car, and having to walk 20 miles to work. Hopefully they make the rest of the economy work since the trade deals aren't that much of an issue in today's world :\ most stuff could probably be compensated some way or another with all the tech we have.

Interesting to hear everyone opinions.

Personally I think its just not possible to come up with a realistic picture of what the final Brexit will look like at this time.

I would just like to see those involved held responsible if it doesnt work out....fat chance!............lol.

We'll do just fine.

IvantheGent wrote:I would just like to see those involved held responsible if it doesnt work out....fat chance!............lol.

And when Britain prospers, will you thank them?