Claeyt wrote:For the record I don't believe Putin and Trump coordinated a Sarin gas attack followed up by a Tomahawk missile strike. I think it's much, much more likely that 1 of 2 scenarios happened.
These are in descending order of likelihood in my opinion and reasoning.
The first Scenario is that it's most probably that the attack was some independent Syrian Commander that may have secretly stashed away a small amount of Sarin and used it on a hardened Syrian position. That commander may or may not have had permission from Assad, who knows. If it did come from an air attack from that airbase then he probably did have permission from Assad. Which leads us to scenario 2.
The second Scenario is if Assad had no permission to launch a chemical attack from Putin. It seemed like the Russians were taken by surprise this week by the chemical attack as much as anyone. I think that if the commander got permission from Assad and if Assad didn't get permission from Putin then this was Assad testing Trump and testing the west as to if he could us chemical weapons to more quickly end the war because right now it seems like he may not be able to end the war entirely.
The 3rd scenario is that Putin planned this, told Assad to use Sarin in a small chemical attack to test the new American President (while of course not telling him anything else) and told Trump (or Jared more likely) via some hidden contact to launch a limited missile strike on the Syrian base where the chemical attack came from so as to throw off the growing Russia/Trump connection. I think this is the least likely scenario.
I am not a big believer in conspiracy theories.
I don't believe there was anyone else that helped kill Kennedy. I don't believe that 9/11 was planned by Bush and Cheney. I don't believe a lot of these things because of one simple reason:
Someone always talks. The larger the conspiracy the more people involved and the more people that might talk. With Kennedy that would mean that tens of people might have known if the CIA was actually involved and were willing to kill the president. With 9/11 it would mean as many as 100 people would have known and were willing to kill thousands of Americans to advance Bush's presidency and wars. Both of these seem so much more unlikely to me than a lone shooter with good aim and a weird inter body ricochet AND a crazed group of extremists who went through a few months of flight training.
With Trump. I think the first 2 "Syrian Only" scenarios are more likely but the 3rd one should not be ruled out. At least 5-6 people would have known. Putin, Putin's intelligence chief, the contact, the person who got the info from the contact and was able to get past the secret service protection of Jared without much notice (possibly Prince, possibly someone else) and lastly Jared who would have brought it to Trump or possibly influenced Trump to a limited attack. All of this of course would be under the possible surveillance of the FBI/CIA/NSA counter intelligence investigation. Not likely but not impossible.
There is also a
4th scenario after that. It's also possible that one of the 2 "Syrian Only" scenarios were serendipitously used by Jared and Trump as an excuse to unilaterally distance themselves from the Russian Scandal without Russian knowledge.
There is also a
5th scenario that Russia and Trump coordinated to get him elected, still maintain pro-Russian goals and the goal of an end to sanctions but have since not had contact since Prince's Secret Sechelles meeting. This scenario means that Trump may have felt forced to attack Syria because of the chemical weapons with no direction from Moscow and surprised Russia only a bit while falling ass backwards into deflecting the Russian Scandal.
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All of this is based on the conspiracy theory of Trump somehow being connected to Russia helping him win the election and this leads us down the road to even more scenarios based on likelihood and reasoning.
Jared is increasingly being viewed at the center of the Russian connection. He had deep money contacts in Russia going back to his father's contacts. He lied about them repeatedly. He was the one who brought in Manafort and possibly Page. The following article is based on leaked memos on how Manafort came to the Trump campaign and into Trump's life through Jared and Jared's father.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- ... ump-reportJared is also the one who worked with Prince. Who knows about Stone. Anyways IF this IS true, it would most likely have gone through Jared and again even this conspiracy theory I blanch at. I think this may be as simple as a former Russian Intelligence officer calling up Manafort in June and telling him "We hacked the DNC emails and are releasing them through Wikileaks next Tuesday to help you guys" and Manafort then may have passed it up to Jared and Jared passed it up to Trump by saying something like "there's a rumor that the DNC got hacked and it's going to be leaked". Then maybe Carter Page was used to get a bit more info on what the Russians had done. Who knows. That's the simple scenario. No collusion, no coordination, just Russia telling Manafort we hacked them, get ready.
The complex scenario for this is the Steele Russia/Trump dossier with money being payed, collusion and blackmail. This would mean Russians dying, Trump aides lying and endless investigations by the FBI, Congress and the CIA.
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The MSM is actually starting to pick this up as either a conspiracy between Trump and Putin to change the subject or as a 'Wag the Dog' scenario by Trump himself. MSNBC has had 2 hosts go full conspiracy on it. CNN has had a few questions about it. Newsweek wrote about it.
http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watc ... 6753987666http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 72256.htmlhttp://www.newsweek.com/did-trump-attac ... ory-580754Several liberal Democratic congressmen have also put forward the theory:
http://shareblue.com/rep-ted-lieu-on-sy ... ct-people/Interestingly good chunks of Trump's base are also calling it a conspiracy. Mostly from a different viewpoint not having to do with Trump's connections to Russia. Yet..
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world ... ria-strikehttp://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity ... protest-ofI guess we shall see as the Russia hearings and FBI counter intelligence investigations will continue.
Meanwhile the airbase Trump struck to deter Syria is back in Action and is already being used to bomb the rebels:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ws-unclear ____________________________________________________________
AcidSpiral wrote:Claeyt he didn't "secretly" contact the Russians beforehand. If you read your own articles you would be enlightened enough to know it is public knowledge that the defence council forewarned the Russians because they had military personnel there.
For once can you start posting about facts and not ignorant assumptions you make based on a bold headline without even reading?
I stated right in the front that the State Department (not the "defence council" nor Trump personally apparently) contacted the Russians a few hours before the attack because of the conflict zone agreement. The Russians ended the conflict zone agreement the next day.