It is definetly a very good theory.
It lacks only the thought, that China desperately needs the shipping routes through this territory (economic reasons). It is not only about strategical thoughts. The key for peace is, that China gets guarantees for those routes. If they don't get them, maybe because as a part of an economic confrontation, China may be willing to risk more, than you may expect today.
Besides the historical background, China and its "never again" attitude, now in a position of relative power.
However, i notice that most of you don't think that this war is imminent at the moment. I interpretive that, that you are actually not willing in support such a confrontation at the moment. These are good news.