Salem

Lansett wrote:

Chrumps wrote:Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?

Yes some times ago an Everbloom followed a Bloodmoon.

Chrumps wrote:

nadde991 wrote:Looks like the Salem community needs to learn their statistics.
As TMeow said:

TotalyMeow wrote:go read about Gambler's Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, Law of Averages, and Independence of Events.

You clearly didn't read about these.

Crumps wrote:Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?

nadde991 wrote:Yes, I did read about all of them: Gambler's Fallacy is the assumption that probability changes depending on past results, Confirmation Bias is when you try to confirm one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, whilst not considering alternative possibilities, Law of Averages states that the likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increase (more attempts, higher probability) and finally Independence of Events is about two events whose probability does not affect one another.

nadde991 wrote:Yes, I did read about all of them: Gambler's Fallacy is the assumption that probability changes depending on past results,

nadde991 wrote:Confirmation Bias is when you try to confirm one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, whilst not considering alternative possibilities,

nadde991 wrote:Law of Averages states that the likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increase (more attempts, higher probability) finally Independence of Events is about two events whose probability does not affect one another.

nadde991 wrote:

Crumps wrote:Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?

By that logic I should also say that the probability of getting an arcane amethyst is bugged because me and my friends got 3 on one blood moon.
0.03 % is not that low, when you think about how many rare items there are and how many people are selling them.

Qiresea wrote:if the probability for something to happen is 50% at each event, it means that the probability for the event not happening is an inverse exponential function of time, so in principle, you can wait for an infinite amount of time for it to happen. i wouldnt be surprised by the season not changing after a few bloodmoons, the statistics is very low.

Everbloom - Blood Moon - Coldsnap
Coldsnap - Blood Moon - Everbloom

EB-BM-EB
CS-BM-CS
EB-BM-EB
CS-BM-CS
CS-BM-CS

Qiresea wrote:no, it is not a case of confirmation bias. it may need a very long time to happen because the probability function is asymptotic. what i am trying to say is that i dont have any reason to believe that there is a bug in the code at this level of statistics.

Chrumps wrote:

nadde991 wrote:Yes, I did read about all of them: Gambler's Fallacy is the assumption that probability changes depending on past results,

Where did I assume the probability has changed depending on something else than a suspected bug ?

nadde991 wrote:Confirmation Bias is when you try to confirm one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, whilst not considering alternative possibilities,

No, I am considering two hypotheses: 1-It is dependent on the previous season, 2-It is random with 50/50 chances. So far it is like 5:2.5 for the first hypothese.

nadde991 wrote:Law of Averages states that the likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increase (more attempts, higher probability) finally Independence of Events is about two events whose probability does not affect one another.

Again, where did I state that some frequency has changed?

nadde991 wrote:

Crumps wrote:Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?

By that logic I should also say that the probability of getting an arcane amethyst is bugged because me and my friends got 3 on one blood moon.
0.03 % is not that low, when you think about how many rare items there are and how many people are selling them.

I agree with you in one point: YOU should learn about statistics.

Qiresea wrote:if the probability for something to happen is 50% at each event, it means that the probability for the event not happening is an inverse exponential function of time, so in principle, you can wait for an infinite amount of time for it to happen. i wouldnt be surprised by the season not changing after a few bloodmoons, the statistics is very low.

Actually waiting infinitely and explaining to oneself it's just statistics would be a particularly sick case of Confirmation Bias.
The chance for the particular series I am referring to is 1/32 (=0.5^5).

On a more practical side:
I am looking for sequences like:

Everbloom - Blood Moon - Coldsnap
Coldsnap - Blood Moon - Everbloom

So far it was (IIRC):

EB-BM-EB
CS-BM-CS
EB-BM-EB
CS-BM-CS
CS-BM-CS

The last 3 were in 2017, the other 2 in mid 2016 so I might be missing something.
It is written now so I can wait a few bloodmoons more to see a larger sample.