so.... here we go...

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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby Chrumps » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:44 pm

TotalyMeow wrote:The chance of either season when it's over is 50/50 so you can use a BM to try to change the season.

The last couple BM's (since may, 5 BM's IIRC) ended with prolonging the season. Assuming 50/50 as you wrote, the chance for it is like 1/32, thus not much. Looks like a bug.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby TotalyMeow » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:10 pm

It's 50/50. Runs are fairly common in statistics.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby nadde991 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:33 pm

Looks like the Salem community needs to learn their statistics.

As TMeow said:
TotalyMeow wrote:go read about Gambler's Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, Law of Averages, and Independence of Events.
matan002 wrote:i'm on the most updated and highest technologically advanced mac, completely superior to the grub you call windows ¦]
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby Chrumps » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:01 pm

nadde991 wrote:Looks like the Salem community needs to learn their statistics.
As TMeow said:
TotalyMeow wrote:go read about Gambler's Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, Law of Averages, and Independence of Events.

You clearly didn't read about these.
Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?
Also, see this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18024 it was also supposed to be 50/50.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby punker » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:12 pm

Chrumps wrote:
nadde991 wrote:Looks like the Salem community needs to learn their statistics.
As TMeow said:
TotalyMeow wrote:go read about Gambler's Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, Law of Averages, and Independence of Events.

You clearly didn't read about these.
Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?
Also, see this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18024 it was also supposed to be 50/50.


probs just standard variance
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby TotalyMeow » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:22 pm

That was a case of copy/pasting code. The reduction probability was applying to the wrong thing because John missed one field when editing.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby Shadow86 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:30 pm

50% chance we have winter again ¦]
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby Chrumps » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:33 pm

TotalyMeow wrote:That was a case of copy/pasting code. The reduction probability was applying to the wrong thing because John missed one field when editing.

That's what I mean. Mistakes can happen in any code.
If you have history of seasons, just find this one, possibly most recent, instance when the season changed after BM.
I am just saying the run of 5 events is fishy. Add another 3 in series and it will stink as hell.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby TotalyMeow » Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:53 pm

He already checked this last time there was a run, but what I'm trying to tell you is that it's a completely different circumstance since there was no copy/paste for this.
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Re: so.... here we go...

Postby Lansett » Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:01 am

Chrumps wrote:Can you point out a single instance when it did not extend the season ?

Yes some times ago an Everbloom followed a Bloodmoon.
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