Candy restore in gluttony

[Zapt13]

But if I try twice and get no restore, that would only happen 1/4... rinse repeat 22 times. The math is right, to miss on 22 consecutive attempts happens at the rate quoted by OP

[Nsuidara]

OK - so i just tried again.

This time i used 22 loyalist lollies to restore my berries debuff. Ate them from a table. No restore.

With 50% chance to restore with each one, that means that there is ~0.00002% chance of not getting a restore. Add that to the former candy restore using session (which would give 0.01% chance of not getting a restore) that is ~0.0000002% chance of not getting a restore.

Either i am the most unlucky guy in the world, or there is some problem with candy as a restore food used from a feasting table.

Why are you pulling numbers out of your ass?

If there is a 50% chance to restore, then it only has 50% chance, not more or less.

Why are you such an idiot?

Learn math and come back.

wtf?
50% chance is 50% chacne
if 50 < Random(99)
random value from range <0,100)
or if 50 <= Random(100)
random value from range (0,100>

is 50% chance...
so you can use 30 times and do not success when you try broken Murphy's law

[Kandarim]

chances of independent stochastic variables multiply.
If each candy has 50% chance to proc, then there is only 25% chance that out of two candies none will proc.
For 22 candies there is a 100/2^22% chance that none of those procs - which equates to roughly one chance in four million.

[Nsuidara]

chances of independent stochastic variables multiply.
If each candy has 50% chance to proc, then there is only 25% chance that out of two candies none will proc.
For 22 candies there is a 100/2^22% chance that none of those procs - which equates to roughly one chance in four million.

how wrong math...
50% is 50%
if 20 times is still 50% chance per one...

you are wrong...

so you mean... i first use candy 2 candy so i have 25% for not success? what wrong math and thinks... is 50% still
use 1 50% success or not
use 2 still 50% success or not

[Rappels]

Yes 50% is 50%. But when the odds of it happening are in this range (like Kandarim and Ligz said), it's more probable the dev's made a mistake than this actually being "bad luck".

chances of independent stochastic variables multiply.
If each candy has 50% chance to proc, then there is only 25% chance that out of two candies none will proc.
For 22 candies there is a 100/2^22% chance that none of those procs - which equates to roughly one chance in four million.

how wrong math...
50% is 50%
if 20 times is still 50% chance per one...

you are wrong...

so you mean... i first use candy 2 candy so i have 25% for not success? what wrong math and thinks... is 50% still
use 1 50% success or not
use 2 still 50% success or not

Each individual roll is 50% yes. You can also calculate the chance of it going "wrong" X times in a row as said before. This is basic statistics.

[Nsuidara]

two separate toss coin (side A - success, side B - fail)
so each toss have 50% chance, because you
toss 1th is A or B
toss 2th is A or B

if you toss two coins one time,
if anyone A is success, then you have 75% chance for success
other 25% fail
because result can be:
A A
A B
B A
B B


"This is basic statistics."
my knowledge about statistics is other...
statistic is more than summarizing... prameters... mean

10 toss and
A B B B A A A A B A
so 6x A and 4x B
so this time you have 60% success from this action (for all do actions)
but i cant calculate 10th toss for chance for other was toss..
10th toss have still 50% chance

[Lansett]

statistic is more than summarizing... prameters... mean

No it's not.

"This is basic statistics."

You showed you understand the basics in the first part of your post so why do you digress with bad math in the second half ?

10th toss have still 50% chance

We don't care about 10th toss chances.
We care about the chance to fail 22 times. Which is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 ... 22 times, and is ridiculously low.

[Nsuidara]

statistic is more than summarizing... prameters... mean

No it's not.

"This is basic statistics."

You showed you understand the basics in the first part of your post so why do you digress with bad math in the second half ?

10th toss have still 50% chance

We don't care about 10th toss chances.
We care about the chance to fail 22 times. Which is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 ... 22 times, and is ridiculously low.

yes if you so ideally toss

but isnt ideally... random in computer method isnt ideally... so is possible 100% have chance for fail

but other say is work. so meybe end it and is solved ?

[Kandarim]

You don't appear to get how probabilities work.
Also, random generators on computers are pretty darn good at their job

[Nsuidara]

You don't appear to get how probabilities work.
Also, random generators on computers are pretty darn good at their job

yes yes... you know better then other... professor Kandarim...
you know what type and algorithm use salem "random generators on computers"...
you know all... the end...

you are boring, I do not like to fight with the wall...

and what you did to speculate probabilities statistics for the chance unsuccessful attempt... but "probabilities statistics" and "probabilities" isnt same...

and say you have 0,..........2% chance for fail... isnt true, because theory is a theory and practice to practice...


in electronics can in theory do with a simple coil and the condenser unlimite power - in theory... but practice is brutal...

so i end it, and out this topic